ENERGY STRATEGY IN THE REALITIES OF THE MODERN WORLD (REVIEW)


  • B.I. Basok Institute of Engineering Thermophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
  • Ye.T. Baseyev Institute of Engineering Thermophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Keywords: fuel and energy complex, energy strategy, forecasting, strategy implementation, bifurcation points, management and monitoring, roadmap

Abstract

Starting the year 1996, energy strategies of Ukraine, one by one, before the completion of the next. In view of the implementation of forecasting indications of leather strategies, it is impossible. At the same time, the obtained reference values did not coincide with the projected.

Where to find the reasons for such "results of implementation" strategies? In the methods and tools of forecasting, management of ways and mechanisms for implementation, socio-economic and geopolitical turbulence, in the global financial and economic crisis? Or, in principle, the impossibility of knowing the future (at a sufficiently remote time interval)?

An overview of conceptual approaches to forecasting the future is given and the impossibility to predict the future is emphasized. The risk of unpredictability of its development and such a complex sector of the economy as energy.

With geopolitical turbulence, with a radical change in the socio-economic system in the country, accompanied by a downturn in the economy, including production in the fuel and energy sector, at any time stage in the implementation of the energy strategy, bifurcation points may appear in the vicinity of which small fluctuations of external influence will sharply increase and indicators forecast in strictly time intervals may become slightly realized, and scenarios for the development of the fuel and energy complex may change. For some indicators, there may be a good match, for others - acceptable, and for a number of indicators - a significant discrepancy with forecasts. The main task is to determine the range of values of key indicators and trends in the development of energy and its individual industries. It was emphasized that the problem of the quality of energy forecasting is not sufficiently developed, since there are no established criteria by which one can objectively evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of a given forecasting system. There are well-established criteria by which one can objectively evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of a particular forecasting system. Despite the lack of objective criteria for assessing the quality of predictive tools, at present systemic forecasting of energy as an integral part of the triad: energy-economy-ecology is generally accepted and is used in leading energy countries. Propositions regarding the need for the super water pipeline in Ukraine in 2017 are involved in the strategy of operational documents - operational plan-forecasts (road maps) for managing and monitoring the implementation of the strategy for promotional projects in 2014, in the disciplines, in the disciplines. References 29, figures 3.

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Published
2019-02-05
How to Cite
Basok, B., & Baseyev, Y. (2019). ENERGY STRATEGY IN THE REALITIES OF THE MODERN WORLD (REVIEW). Thermophysics and Thermal Power Engineering, 41(1), 34-42. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31472/ttpe.1.2019.5
Section
District and Industrial Heat Power, Renewable Energy Systems, Energy Efficiency