ENERGY STRATEGY IN THE REALITIES OF THE MODERN WORLD (REVIEW)
Starting the year 1996, energy strategies of Ukraine, one by one, before the completion of the next. In view of the implementation of forecasting indications of leather strategies, it is impossible. At the same time, the obtained reference values did not coincide with the projected.
Where to find the reasons for such "results of implementation" strategies? In the methods and tools of forecasting, management of ways and mechanisms for implementation, socio-economic and geopolitical turbulence, in the global financial and economic crisis? Or, in principle, the impossibility of knowing the future (at a sufficiently remote time interval)?
An overview of conceptual approaches to forecasting the future is given and the impossibility to predict the future is emphasized. The risk of unpredictability of its development and such a complex sector of the economy as energy.
With geopolitical turbulence, with a radical change in the socio-economic system in the country, accompanied by a downturn in the economy, including production in the fuel and energy sector, at any time stage in the implementation of the energy strategy, bifurcation points may appear in the vicinity of which small fluctuations of external influence will sharply increase and indicators forecast in strictly time intervals may become slightly realized, and scenarios for the development of the fuel and energy complex may change. For some indicators, there may be a good match, for others - acceptable, and for a number of indicators - a significant discrepancy with forecasts. The main task is to determine the range of values of key indicators and trends in the development of energy and its individual industries. It was emphasized that the problem of the quality of energy forecasting is not sufficiently developed, since there are no established criteria by which one can objectively evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of a given forecasting system. There are well-established criteria by which one can objectively evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of a particular forecasting system. Despite the lack of objective criteria for assessing the quality of predictive tools, at present systemic forecasting of energy as an integral part of the triad: energy-economy-ecology is generally accepted and is used in leading energy countries. Propositions regarding the need for the super water pipeline in Ukraine in 2017 are involved in the strategy of operational documents - operational plan-forecasts (road maps) for managing and monitoring the implementation of the strategy for promotional projects in 2014, in the disciplines, in the disciplines. References 29, figures 3.
2. Kulyk M.M., Horbulin V.P., Kyrylenko O.V. [Conceptual approaches to the development of energy of Ukraine (analytical materials)], Кyiv, Instytut zahalnoi enerhetyky NAN Ukrainy [Institute of General Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine]. 2017. 78 p. (Ukr.)
3. Postanova Verkhovnoi Rady Ukrainy “Pro natsionalnu enerhetychnu prohramu Ukrainy do 2010 roku” 15 travnia 1996 roku, № 191/96-VR [Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine "On the National Energy Program of Ukraine until 2010" May 15, 1996. № 191/96-VR]. (Ukr.)
4. Pro skhvalennia Enerhetychnoi stratehii Ukrainy na period do 2030 roku. Rozporiadzhennia Kabinetu Ministriv Ukrainy vid 15.03.2006, №145-r [About the acceptance of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030. Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated March 15, 2006, No.145-r.]. (Ukr.)
5. Onovlena enerhetychna stratehiia Ukrainy na period do 2030 roku. Rozporiadzhennia Kabinetu Ministriv Ukrainy vid 27.04.2013, №1070-r. “Pro skhvalennia Enerhetychnoi stratehii Ukrainy na period do 2030 roku”. [The renewed energy strategy of Ukraine for the period up to 2030. Order of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated 27.04.2013, No. 1070-r. "On Approval of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the Period until 2030"]. (Ukr.)
6. Nova enerhetychna stratehia Ukrainy do 2035 roku: "Bezpeka, enerhoefektyvnist, konkurentospromozhnist" [New Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2035: "Security, Energy Efficiency, Competitiveness"]. (Ukr.) http://mpe.kmu.gov.ua/minugol/control/uk/doccatalog/list?currDir=50358
7. Oizerman T.I. [Is it possible to foresee a distant future], Vestnik RAN [Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2005. V. 75. № 8. P. 720-726. (Rus.)
8. Haiek F.A. [Road to slavery], Voprosy filosofii [Questions of philosophy], 1990. № 1. P. 113-1519. (Rus.)
9. Prihozhyn I.R. [Philosophy of instability], Voprosy filosofii [Questions of philosophy], 1991. № 6. P. 46-52. (Rus.)
10. Popper K. [The Poverty of Historicism (or Questions of Philosophy)], Moscow, “Prohress” ["Progress"]. 1992. 166p. (Rus.)
11. Malinetskii H.H. [Technogenic resources in the context of the new industrialization of Russia], Vestnik RAN [Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences], 2015. V. 85. № 4. P. 344-350. (Rus.)
12. Kapitsa P.L. [Experiment Theory of Practice], Moscow, “Nauka” ["Science"]. 1974, 288 p. (Rus.)
13. Loktev V.M. [Knowledge is power?], Visnyk NAN Ukrainy [Visnyk of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine], 2018. № 1. P. 75-85. (Ukr.)
14. Riabtsev H.A. [State policy on oil products market development in Ukraine: formation and implementation], Monograph. Кyiv, NADU [NAPA]. 2011. 416p. (Ukr.)
15. Horelova V.L. [Basics prediction of systems], Moscow, Vysshaia shkola [Higher School]. 1986. 287 p. (Rus.)
16. Makarov A.A. [Methods and results of forecasting the development of the energy of Russia], Izvestiia RAN. Enerhetika [News of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Energy], 2010. № 4. P. 26-40. (Rus.)
17. Filippov S.P. [Predicting Energy Consumption of a Complex of Adaptive Simulation Models], Izvestiia RAN. Enerhetika [News of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Energy], 2010. № 4. P. 41-45. (Rus.)
18. Sukhodolia A., Riabtsev G. [Energy manifesto], TERMINAL [TERMINAL], 2017. № 2 (848). P. 3-8. (Rus.)
19. Potashnik S.I. [From strategy to working papers and real deadlines], TERMINAL [TERMINAL], 2017. № 2 (848). P. 31-32. (Rus.)
20. Rukomeda R. [Energy contours of the new world], TERMINAL [TERMINAL], 2017. № 2 (848). P. 39-42. (Rus.)
21. Buslavets O. [High-quality road maps require high-quality tools], TERMINAL [TERMINAL], 2017. № 2 (848). P. 22-26. (Ukr.)
22. Diachuk O., Chepeliev M., Podolets R., Trypolska H. and others, f in general edition by Oharenko Yu. ta Aliievoi O. ["The transition of Ukraine to renewable energy till 2050"], Кyiv, ART KNYHA [ART BOOK]. 2017. 88 p. (Ukr.)
23. Apolonskii O.Yu., Orlov Yu.N. [Comparative analysis of long-term forecasts of energy development. Part II], Preprint IPM im. M.V. Keldysha [Preprint of the IPM them. MV Keldysh], 2010. № 58. 26p. (Rus.) http://library.keldysh.ru/preprint.asp?=2010-58.
24. Klimenko V.V. [Experience of genetic projections of world energy: can we foresee the distant future?], Reports RAS [Reports of the Russian Academy of Sciences]. 2014. 458. №4. Р. 415-418. (Rus.)
25. [PsycheaExpertus STC "Psyche": consider details], TERMINAL [TERMINAL]. 2017. № 2 (848). P. 35-36. (Rus.)
26. Heiets V.M. [Development and interaction of economic and energy policy in Ukraine], Visnyk NAN Ukrainy [Visnyk of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine], 2016. № 2. P. 46-53. (Ukr.)
27. Dolinsky A.A., Basok B.I., Baseev Y.T. [Strategy of heat supply of settlements of Ukraine. To discuss the projects of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine for the period until 2020, 2030 and 2035] Visnyk NAN Ukrainy [Visnyk of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine], 2015. №4. P. 98-105. (Ukr.)
Abstract views: 150 PDF Downloads: 183
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
If the article is accepted for publication in the journal «Industrial Heat Engineering» the author must sign an agreementon transfer of copyright. The agreement is sent to the postal (original) or e-mail address (scanned copy) of the journal editions.
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License International CC-BY that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.