GLOBAL WARMING – PHYSICS AND GEOPOLITICS (Review). 1. Anthropogenic and natural concepts of climate change
Introduction. Global warming and so-called the “greenhouse effect” is one of the most discussed problems of physics and geopolitics, which has caused protest environmental movements in the world.
Problem Statement. Widely discussed are both anthropogenic (the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere) and the natural concepts of global warming with the dramatic effects of climate change on the planet and individual regions.
Purpose. Evaluate the state of the problem, to present the results of research and measures to possible reduction of the greenhouse effect.
Materials and methods. Authoritative literature sources with the analysis of anthropogenic and natural factors of global warming are used, including with the explanation of the physical processes which are shown at solar-geomagnetic activity and other natural phenomena.
Results. The main causes and mechanisms of natural and man-made nature for the actual growth of greenhouse gas emissions and global temperature in the 20th century are identified and their estimates for the period up to 2100 are given.
Conclusions. Most likely, the effect of global warming on the planet's climate is totally due to natural causes of cosmogenic origin and somewhat exacerbated by the effects of industrial development of mankind. For the final solution of this problem it is necessary to fully and adequately conduct more in-depth complex experimental and theoretical-model studies taking into account various factors of geological, climatic, meteorological, thermophysical, astrophysical nature and application of modern methods of mathematical physics, statistics and probability theory. reasonable measures to adapt the economy and life to climate change.
2. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4) URL: https://archive.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml
3. Flavin K. et al. (2002). State of the World 2002. Translated from English: VGO «Ukraine. The Agenda for the 21st Century and the Institute for Sustainable Development». Kyiv, Intelsfera [in Ukrainian].
4. Tereshin A.G., Klimenko A.V., Klimenko V.V. (2015). The golden age of gas and its impact on global energy, the global carbon cycle and climate. Thermal Engineering., №5, 3-13 [in Russian].
5. Demerchyan K.K., Demerchyan K.S., Kondratiev K.Ya. (2001). The growth rate of CO2 concentration and the refinement of its forecast estimates. News of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Energy., №1, 3-35 [in Russian].
6. Eliseev A.V. Global CO2 cycle. Eliseev_A_V_theses_26042017. Pdf [in Russian].
7. Klimenko V.V., Tereshin A.G. (2012). World energy and the global climate in the 21st century in the context of historical trends: The limits of growth. Universal and global history. The evolution of the universe, earth, life, society. Ed. L.E. Grinin, I.V. Ilyin, A.V. Korotaev. Volgograd: Teacher, 608-621 [in Russian].
8. Internet resource URL:https://www.segodnya.ua/world/wnews/temperatura-na-planete-podnyalas-na-1-1-0s-v-oon-byut-trevogu-1335122.html
9. Arzhanov M.M. et al. (2012). Climate change assessment in the Northern Hemisphere in the 21st century under alternative scenarios of anthropogenic impact. News of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Physics of the atmosphere and the ocean. V. 48. № 6, 643- 654 [in Russian].
10. Demerchyan K.S., Demerchyan K.K., Danilevich Ya.B., Kondratiev K.Ya. (2002). Global warming, energy and geopolitics. News of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Energy., №3, 18-46 [in Russian].
11. Demerchyan K.S., Kondratiev K.Ya. (1999). The scientific validity of forecasts of the impact of energy on climate. News of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Energy., №6, 3-46 [in Russian].
12. Klimenko V.V., Klimenko A.V., Tereshin A.G. (2001). Energy and climate at the turn of the century: forecasts and reality. Thermal Engineering., №10, 61-66 [in Russian].
13. Baseyev E.T. (2003). Kyoto Protocol: obstacles to implementation (to the question of the ambiguity of forecast estimates of changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere and an increase in surface temperature. Overview). Proceedings of the International Energy-Ecological Congress “Energy. Ecology. Human". March 27-28, 2003. Kiev, 67-71 [in Russian].
14. Baseyev E.T., Didenko V.M. (2001). Greenhouse effect and heat power of Ukraine. Political, economic and environmental problems of energy security and transportation of energy resources in Ukraine. Collection of scientific papers of the international scientific-practical conference. October 24-26, 2000, Kyiv. RVPS of NAS of Ukraine [in Russian].
15. Monin A.S., Shishkov Yu.A. (2000). Climate as a problem of physics. Advances in physical sciences. V. 170, № 4, 419-445 [in Russian].
16. Ivanov V., Boguslavsky S., Sovga O., Zhorov V. (2004). World Ocean as a stabilizer of the Earth's climate. Bulletin of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. №3, 32-37 [in Ukrainian].
17. Losev K.S. (2009). Paradoxes of the fight against global warming. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. V. 79, №1, 36-40 [in Russian].
18. Bolshakov V.A., Kapitsa A.P. (2011). Lessons from the development of the orbital theory of climate. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. V. 81, № 7, 603-612 [in Russian].
19. Zamolodchikov D.G. (2013). Natural and anthropogenic concepts of modern warming. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. V. 83, №3, 227-235 [in Russian].
20. Korablev O.I. (2016). Mars and Venus: different fates of the planets of the earth group. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. V. 86, № 7, 587-599 [in Russian].
21. Sorokhtin O.G. (2006). The evolution of the Earth’s climate and the origin of the ice eras. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. V. 76, №8, 699-706 [in Russian].
22. Shestopalov V.M., Lukin A.E., Zgonnik V.A., Makarenko A.N., Larin N.V., Boguslavsky V.M. (2018). Essays on the degassing of the Earth. Kyiv [in Russian].
23. Nikolaev A.V. (1997). Problems of geotomography. Moscow, 4-38. [in Russian].
24. Usenko O.V. (2014). The formation of melts. Geodynamic process and physicochemical interactions. Kyiv, [in Russian].
25. Avakyan S.V. (2017). Supramolecular environmental physics: climatic and biophysical effects. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. V. 87, № 5. 456-466 [in Russian].
26. Bartsev S.I., Belolipetskiy P.V., Degermendzhi A.G. et al. (2016). A new look at the dynamics of the Earth’s climate. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. V. 86, № 3, 244-251 [in Russian].
27. Karmazinenko S.P., Kuraeva I.V., Samchuk A.I., Voityuk Yu.Yu., Manicheva V.I. (2014). Heavy metals in environmental components. Mariupol (ecological and geochemical aspects). Kyiv [in Ukrainian].
28. Vovk V.V., Egorova L.V., Troshichev O.A. (2008). The relationship of atmospheric characteristics in Antarctica with space weather factors. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy. V. 48, №4, 561-565 [in Russian].
29. Voloschuk V., Sripnik M. (1993). Global greenhouse effect and climatic conditions of Ukraine. Bulletin of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. №9, 43-46 [in Ukrainian].
30. Lipinskiy V.M. (2002). Global climate change and its response in the dynamics of Ukraine's climate. Proceedings of the International Conference “Investment and Climate Change: Opportunities for Ukraine, July 10–12, 2002, Kyiv: Climate Change Investments, 177-185 [in Ukrainian].
31. Increasing the climate resilience of the agricultural sector of the South of Ukraine. Szentendre, Hungary. Regional environmental center. October 2015 [in Ukrainian].
32. Matishev G.G., Dzhenyuk S.L., Moiseev D.V. (2017). Climate and large ecosystems of the Arctic. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. V. 87, №2. 110-120 [in Russian].
33. Sergienko V.I. (2011). Speech at the general meeting of the RAS (transcript). Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. V. 81, № 10, 893 [in Russian].
34. Fomin V.M., Molodin V.I., Erminov V.D. (2015). Interdisciplinary research is the main trend in the development of science in Russia. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. V. 85, №11, 993-1004 [in Russian].
35. Popper K. (1992). The Poverty of Historicism. Problems of Philosophy. №9, 22-48 [in Russian].
36. Harre R. (1992). Social epistemology: knowledge transfer through speech. Problems of Philosophy. №9, 49–60 [in Russian].
37. Mironov N. (2007). Measures and challenges of global energy security. World energy. №4, 50-51.
Abstract views: 64 PDF Downloads: 60
If the article is accepted for publication in the journal «Industrial Heat Engineering» the author must sign an agreementon transfer of copyright. The agreement is sent to the postal (original) or e-mail address (scanned copy) of the journal editions.
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License International CC-BY that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.