CLIMATE SECURITY: BEHAVIORAL FEATURES OF THE ANOMALY OF THE GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF THE EARTH'S SURFACE
Abstract
The purpose of the work is to analyze the development of the physical foundations of climate change and study the behavior of the global average temperature of the Earth's surface in the context of the action of climate-forming factors.
The results of an analysis of the development of ideas about the physical aspects of climate change are considered. Relevant data, ranging from priority studies of the greenhouse effect of J.-B. Fourier before the advent of modern models of the Earth's climate system by S. Manabe, K. Hasselmann, etc. are presented. An analysis was carried out of the features of changes in the anomaly of the global average temperature of the Earth's surface depending on the action of two main natural climate-forming factors - the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon and volcanic eruptions. It is noted that the El Niño phenomenon is now interpreted as a phenomenon of internal climate variability, and not the result of climate change against the backdrop of global warming.
Issues are being considered to deepen understanding of the possibility of the impact of volcanic activity on the Earth's climate. For example, data is provided on the eruptions of the relatively large underwater volcano Hunga in January 2022, which led to the effect of a temporary increase in the average temperature of the Earth in 2023, which is associated with the release of large amounts of water vapor, among other volcanic products. Data from an analysis of the increase in the level and growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide as a key agent in the mixture of greenhouse gases are presented. It is noted that the growth of its level is accelerating, starting from the 60s of the last century until the start of the COVID 19 pandemic inclusive, with maximum acceleration in the “evidence-based” year of 2019, its reduction in the “current” years (2020-2022) and a return from the end of 2021 to the previous trend of increasing the growth rate of atmospheric CO2.
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