ANALYSIS OF ACTIONS FOR UKRAINE TO COMPLETELY REJECT RUSSIAN NATURAL GAS
Abstract
The aim of the work is to identify and analyse the most effective measures for Ukraine to completely reject Russian natural gas. The annual consumption of natural gas in Ukraine is about 28 billion m3, while the volume of its own production makes up around 20 billion m3/year. In recent years, Russian gas has been imported from Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. To achieve Ukraine's independence of Russian natural gas, it is proposed to implement ten actions: replacement of natural gas with biomass and solid biofuels for heat production; further construction of wind and solar power plants; production of biomethane; increasing the flexibility and level of decarbonization of Ukraine’s energy system; improving energy efficiency in district heating systems, buildings and industry; substitution of Russian supplies with natural gas from other sources; introduction of heat pumps; extension of the service life of existing nuclear power plants; encouraging consumers to temporarily reduce the room temperature by 1°C; introduction of natural gas storage obligations. The implementation of the suggested actions may provide projected reductions in the consumption or replacement of natural gas in the amount of 10 billion m3/year by 2030 and 25.8 billion m3/year by 2050. Among these actions, switching to biomass and solid biofuels for heat production could replace 3 billion m3/year by 2030 and 10.3 billion m3/year by 2050. The production and consumption of biomethane might substitute 0.8 and 3.7 billion m3/year of gas in 2030 and 2050, respectively. A number of required organizational and legislative measures have been formulated to implement the proposed actions to replace Russian natural gas in Ukraine. When the military operations end, Ukraine will urgently need to elaborate an effective and ambitious program to reject Russian gas, coal, oil and oil products within several years.
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